MONDAY,  APRIL 6,  2009

MORE GROWN-UP THINKING - AT 6:27 P.M. ET:  Bill Kristol, in tomorrow's Washington Post, will deflate President Obama's rather simplistic arguments about creating a world without nuclear weapons:

...to justify a world without nuclear weapons, what Obama would really have to envision is a world without war, or without threats of war. That's an ancient vision. It's one reason American presidents have tried to encourage the spread of liberal democracy and responsible regimes around the world.

But, of course, Obama's crowd ridiculed those efforts.

But we have a long way to go before achieving a world of pacific liberal regimes. George W. Bush's hope for a world without tyranny is the necessary -- though perhaps still not the sufficient -- precondition to a world without nuclear weapons. The danger is that the allure of a world without nuclear weapons can be a distraction -- even an excuse for not acting against real nuclear threats.

One of those threats is Iran, which Obama discussed in his Prague speech on nuclear disarmament:

"We want Iran to take its rightful place in the community of nations, politically and economically. We will support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy with rigorous inspections. That's a path that the Islamic Republic can take. Or the government can choose increased isolation, international pressure, and a potential nuclear arms race in the region that will increase insecurity for all."

Obviously, Obama recommends the first path. But notice what he didn't do:

He didn't say that a nuclear-armed Iranian regime is unacceptable. He didn't express a commitment to preventing such an outcome, or confidence that the United States and international community would prevent such an outcome. He simply suggested that it wouldn't be optimal for Iran to choose that outcome. And if the rulers of the Islamic republic disagree? In the very speech in which Obama outlined his vision of a world without nuclear weapons, he weakened America's stand against Iran's nuclear weapons program.

So while Obama talks of a future without nuclear weapons, the trajectory we are on today is toward a nuclear- and missile-capable North Korea and Iran -- and a far more dangerous world.

COMMENT:   Very well said.  Please read the whole piece.  We are making one concession after another, and getting nothing in return.  And that's why we all should worry...a great deal.

April 6, 2009   Permalink

DOW CLOSE - AT 4:12 P.M. ET:  The Dow closed down 42 points, to 7976, an indifferent day.

OH NO - AT 3:42 P.M. ET - Hat tip on this one to John Hinderaker at Power Line.  From Bloomberg:

At a news conference afterward, Obama said his debut on the international stage had convinced him that “political interaction in Europe is not that different from the United States Senate,” where he served before entering the White House.

“There’s a lot of -- I don’t know what the term is in Austrian -- wheeling and dealing, and people are pursuing their interests, and everybody has their own particular issues and their own particular politics,” he said in response to an Austrian reporter’s question.

COMMENT:  Will someone inform our worldly, cultured, smarter-than-anyone president that there's no language called Austrian.  Austrians speak German, and that included native son Adolf Hitler, of recent fame.  Let's introduce the president to Austrian stuff.  Maybe he can see "The Sound of Music" or something.

Can you imagine the reaction if Bush had said that?

April 6, 2009   Permalink

SPIN ON - AT 3:18 P.M. ET:  Some of the dovish persuasion are trying to spin yesterday's North Korean rocket launch as a failure.  Nothing to worry about.  Nothing to see.  Please move on.  But the facts may well be very different:  From AP, via Fox News:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea's rocket may have fallen into the sea, but military experts cautioned Monday against calling it a complete failure, pointing out that it traveled twice as far as any missile the country has launched.

Although the distance was still far short of showing North Korea could reach U.S. territory, it rattled the North's neighbors and countries around the globe, with the U.S. and its allies pushing for quick punishment at an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting held hours after the launch.

The launch, which demonstrated progress, is a particularly worrying development for a belligerent country that says it has nuclear weapons and once threatened to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire."

COMMENT:  A former Air Force general and missile expert said on Fox TV today that to dismiss this test as a failure misses the point.  Each test advances the North Korean program.  Things are learned.  And the range of the North Korean missiles is obviously increasing.  Soon they will be a threat to the western United States.

April 6, 2009   Permalink

DOW NOW - AT 11:38 A.M. ET:  The Dow is down 104, to 7915.

BULLETIN - AT 9:47 A.M. ET:  The president has spoken to the Turkish parliament.  Most of his speech was boilerplate.  You know - we are not at war with Islam, we want a good relationship with Muslim countries, Islam has enriched the world.  Pretty much George Bush stuff. 

But there were two curious things:  First, Mr. Obama once again endorsed Turkey's entry into the European Union, one day after he was slapped down by Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel for saying just that.  The European Union's entry requirements are really not our business.  Why did the president feel it necessary to rub France and Germany's noses in it once more?  Is it simply because he was in Turkey and wanted to make nice?  His behavior reminds me of the line from a song in "Finian's Rainbow" - "If I'm not near the girl I love, I love the girl I'm near."  The man just can't help going for that love.

And then there was this, which will create major buzz on the internet, as reported by The New York Times:

“The United States has been enriched by Muslim-Americans,” Mr. Obama said. “Many other Americans have Muslims in their family, or have lived in a Muslim-majority country. I know, because I am one of them.”

And then he paused. And waited. And, after about five seconds, as the translator caught up, the applause came.

It was a politically risky line for Mr. Obama to use because back at home, there remains chatter, particularly on right-wing internet Web sites, that accuse Mr. Obama of being Muslim, and may try to interpret that line as proof of those views.

I'm not sure that will happen, but you'd think, considering the sensitivity of the issue, that the president could have been more clear.  When he says, "I am one of them," I assume he means that he has Muslims in his family (true) and has lived in a Muslim-majority country (Indonesia).  But the sloppiness will ignite the buzz machine.  He should have said, "Many other Americans have Muslims in their family, as I do, or have lived in a Muslim-majority country, as I have."  Much clearer. 

Oh, by the way, Mr. Obama did get in the required grovel line.  After discussing the delicate issue of Turkey's genocide of Armenians in 1915, the president said, "“Our country still struggles with the legacy of our past treatment of Native Americans.”

Again, he can't help himself.

April 6, 2009   Permalink

 
EXHIBIT A - AT 8:25 A.M. ET:  The Washington Times, in an editorial today, makes a telling point about Mr. Obama's trip to Europe, and some of the wisdom he exuded there:

The president quixotically says that a further U.S.-Russian nuclear drawdown will give the United States "greater moral authority to say to Iran, 'Don't develop a nuclear weapon,' to say to North Korea, 'Don't proliferate nuclear weapons.' " This is a charming notion, but it displays shocking ignorance of the strategic rationale driving countries toward creating or expanding their nuclear arsenals.

COMMENT:  It sure does.  The idea that the U.S. needs more moral authority to talk to a regime that is the world's greatest sponsor of terror is absurd.  It's the kind of over-intellectualization and super-rationalization that we're getting from the Obama crowd.  It is worrying.

April 6, 2009   Pemalink

AND NOW FOR THE GROWN-UP WORLD - AT 7:35 A.M. ET:  The president is about to address the Turkish parliament.  This should really be rich, as Turkey is a Muslim country.  The opportunity for high grovel is so tempting.  The president has already bowed down physically to one Muslim leader, the king of Saudi Arabia, as you've seen in a widely circulated photo.  We can't wait to hear what honors are about to be bestowed on other aggrieved Muslims. 

This, from the Washington Post, should put the president's current excursion in Europe into some perspective:

As Obama prepared to address the Turkish parliament Monday, the U.N. Security Council met in an emergency session. Despite the urging of the United States and Japan, the 15-member council could not agree on a statement criticizing North Korea's rocket launch. China and Russia said they were not yet convinced that Pyongyang had violated any U.N. rules, according to council officials.

Remember all that palling around that Obama did with Russia's Medvedev last week?  Remember the smiles?  Remember the talk about "resetting" our relationship with Moscow?  Remember the pledge to start negotiating a new nuclear weapons treaty?  Remember the warmth and the good times?  Oh, and also the swell food.

Lot of good it did us.  The old reds won't even admit that North Korea broke any rules.  Security Council resolutions?  Did you see any resolutions?  Maybe the secretary-general's dog ate them.  That must be it.

We got stiffed at the UN yesterday.  North Korea didn't even get a slap on the wrist.  It serves as a metaphor for Mr. Obama's entire trip, with The One accompanied by 500 well-chosen staffers.  Sure, they loved him.  They loved Michelle.  They loved everybody.  They loved the plane.  And, in the end, we got very little, bordering on nothing.  NATO committed a closet full of troops to Afghanistan and said nice things.  But, even yesterday, French President Sarkozy rather bluntly told Mr. Obama to butt out of Europe's internal business after the president suggested that the European Union admit Turkey, a sensitive subject.  Angela Merkel joined in.  Even the warmth didn't outlive the trip.

When will some Americans learn that The Obamas' personal popularity will not translate into policy?  Nations have their own interests.  You can be invited to their party, but don't expect the keys to the kingdom.

In fact, the trip may backfire.  Rasmussen reports that, even after the media did its part, as a division of Obamaland, to portray the trip as sublime, Obama's poll numbers have not shot up at home.  Rasmussen also reported that a majority of Americans want a military response to North Korea, something the Ivy League crowd around Obama probably didn't expect.

I'm reminded of something that George Shultz, President Reagan's secretary of state, once said:  "Negotiations are a euphemism for capitulation if the shadow of power is not cast across the bargaining table."  The president should mount that quote on his desk.  Throughout the trip he has appeared more the neophyte than the leader, more the apprentice than the president.  His trip came at a moment when the Pentagon is preparing widely publicized budget cuts.  It came at a moment when the phrase, "the war on terror," has been dropped from administration vocabulary.  It came at a moment when the administration flashes "weakness" rather than strength.  And, of course, the president spent an embarrassing amount of time this last week apologizing for America's sins, real or imagined, mostly imagined.  There was no shadow of power.  There was only the shadow of a kid playing in the sandbox.

Sure, I'm proud that we can show off our first African-American president.  And Michelle Obama conducted herself with great dignity.  Sure, I like it that crowds cheer a president, rather than boo him.  But these things are on the surface.  Europe despised Ronald Reagan, but he saved them and was the key figure in removing the Soviet threat.  The Europeans liked Bill Clinton, in part because they could sucker him into a war in the Balkans that Europe should have fought itself.  They loathed George W. Bush, but the America Europe depends on was kept safe by Mr. Bush, something his successor refuses to acknowledge.  Indeed, one waited for a single word from President Obama acknowledging the contributions of his predecessor, something that common sense should have dictated.  We continue to wait.

We noticed that the president has resorted to a speech style reminiscent of Ted Sorensen's speeches for Jack Kennedy.  I call it see-saw rhetoric.  You know it:  "Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate."  That sort of thing.  So, in his speech calling for nuclear disarmament, the president pledged this nation to that goal, but cautioned that, in the interim, he would not unilaterally disarm this country.  We want to disarm, but we won't do it alone.  Now, that's fine, but the key question is where the president's heart lies.  Will he be fierce in defending this nation, as Ronald Reagan was, or will he be faint-hearted, while negotiating questionable treaties?  No American president was more interested in arms control than was President Reagan - something not widely known.  But his interest marched side by side with the most significant strengthening of American defense that we saw during the Cold War.

Some say that Mr. Obama's approach, on bended knee, is simply a tactic, hiding real policies that are tougher.  Some even say that his actual policies are similar to those of George W. Bush.  I hope so.  The final judgment is certainly not in.  And we recall that Jack Kennedy's first year in office was marked by weakness and foreign failures, but that his second was far better.  However, I do hope the president realizes from this past week that campaigning and governing are entirely different, and that the road show will wear thin, especially here at home, in the absence of gains for the United States.  And he might, in his speeches, occasionally throw in words like "democracy," "victory" and, yes, even "Americanism," to remind foreign nations that his address is Washington, and not the world.

We await his address to the Turkish parliament. 

April 6, 2009   Permalink 

SUNDAY,  APRIL 5,  2009

FASCINATING - AT 4:37 P.M . ET:  President Obama has landed in Turkey, but Michelle Obama is not with him.  She has returned to Washington.  No explanation has been given.  If one crops up, I'll pass it along.  I wonder if she felt some awkwardness about being a woman visiting a Muslim country.  I'm just speculating, but it's a fascinating tidbit.

April 5, 2009   Permalink

RELIGIOUS NEWS - AT 2:57 P.M. ET:  Just in from the BBC: 

Some 200 mosques in Islam's holiest city, Mecca, point the wrong way for prayers, reports from Saudi Arabia say.

All mosques have a niche showing the direction of the most sacred Islamic site, the Kaaba, an ancient cube-like building in Mecca's Grand Mosque.

But people looking down from recently built high-rises in Mecca found the niches in many older mosques were not pointing directly towards the Kaaba.

Some worshippers are said to be anxious about the validity of their prayers.

COMMENT:  You know, instead of sending jet fighters to the Saudis, maybe a compass would do.  Let's get priorities straight.

April 5, 2009   Permalink

JOB PROSPECTS - AT 10:23 A.M. ET: 

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. may suffer further job losses in the coming months after employers cut payrolls by 633,000 in March and the unemployment rate jumped to a 25-year high of 8.5 percent.

A host of companies -- from manufacturers such as Johnson Controls Inc. and Dana Holding Corp. to service providers like International Business Machines Corp. and even the U.S. Postal Service -- have announced plans to eliminate jobs in the face of depressed demand from their customers.

“We expect labor-market conditions to remain appalling for many months to come,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, wrote in a client note following yesterday’s report from the Labor Department.

COMMENT:  This is the real economy, and far more important than stock market reports.  We are nowhere near the unemployment high of 25% during the worst of the great Depression, but we could conceivably reach almost half of that later this year.  The country could hobble along at that rate, but the economy would be chronically soft and vulnerable, which is what has happened in several European countries.

April 5, 2009   Permalink

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL - AT 9:36 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen reports that presidential approval is holding steady, but hasn't increased as a result of Mr. Obama's excellent European adventure.  Some 56% approve of the Obama performance, while 43% disapprove, pretty much where it's been.

April 5, 2009   Permalink

OBAMA AND NUKES - AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  The president has delivered a speech in Prague calling for a world without nuclear weapons.  He began, of course, in high grovel, announcing that America had a special obligation in this case because we are the only country to have used nuclear weapons.  He might have explained the circumstances to the young people in the audience, and that the use of those weapons ended World War II and probably saved the lives of millions.  But, as Gilda Radner used to say, never mind.

The rest of the speech was within reason:

In a speech driven with fresh urgency by North Korea's rocket launch just hours earlier, Obama said the U.S. would ''immediately and aggressively'' seek ratification of a comprehensive ban on testing nuclear weapons. He said the U.S. would host a summit within the next year on reducing and eventually eliminating nuclear weapons, and he called for a global effort to secure nuclear material.

Okay, pretty standard.  He also addressed Iran, and his wording was fine:

Addressing another potential nuclear foe, Obama said in his speech the U.S. will present Iran with ''a clear choice'' to join the community of nations by ceasing its nuclear and ballistic missile activity or face increased isolation.

He said the U.S. will proceed with development of a missile defense system in Europe as long as there is an Iranian threat of developing nuclear weapons. If that threat is removed, he said, ''The driving force for missile defense in Europe will be removed.''

And...

Obama coupled his call for a nuclear-free world with an assurance that America would not unilaterally give up nuclear weapons. It must be a one-for-all, all-for-one endeavor, he said, and until that is possible, the U.S. will maintain a big enough arsenal to serve as a deterrent.

COMMENT:  These are words, not deeds, but words are important.  I did sense that this speech showed a firmer grasp of military reality than Mr. Obama has shown before, and that is all to the good.  We'll see what actions, if any, follow.

April 5, 2009   Permalink

NORTH KOREAN LAUNCH - AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  North Korea has now launched its missile, in defiance of the wishes of many nations and UN resolutions:

(CNN) -- American officials condemned the North Korean launch of a long-range rocket Sunday, with President Obama calling it a "provocative act."

The rocket, a Taepodong 2, was launched at around 11:30 a.m. local time Sunday (2:30 a.m. GMT) at a base in the northeastern part of the country. Officials in Washington, D.C., confirmed early Sunday that the rocket cleared Japan.

Preliminary data show that two objects, likely boosters from the rocket, apparently fell around Japan -- one in the Sea of Japan and one in the Pacific Ocean.

In a statement, Obama said the launch was "a clear violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718, which expressly prohibits North Korea from conducting ballistic missile-related activities of any kind."

LATE BULLETIN:  The North Korean satellite did not achieve orbit, according to the North American Aerospace Defense Command.

COMMENT:  The UN Security Council, that bulwark of peace and freedom, will meet later today.  The problem, of course, is that China, North Korea's closest ally, has a veto on the Council.  From the Washington Post:

China, which is North Korea's primary economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter, urged the world's nations to remain calm and exercise restraint. China and Russia will probably oppose increased Security Council sanctions against the North, diplomats said.

This is Obama's first major foreign-policy test.  His initial condemnation is appropriate.  We knew he would first take the matter to the UN.  It's what he does after the UN fails, which it will, that will tell us how he intends to act, not speak, when confronted with defiance.  We're taking bets.

April 5, 2009   Permalink